Section 116 of the Workforce Opportunity and Innovation Act (WIOA) requires the development and dissemination of an objective statistical model that will be used to make adjustments to negotiated levels of performance for actual economic conditions and characteristics of participants. The statistical adjustment model was developed in collaboration and coordination among the WIOA core programs in the federal partner agencies.
The U.S. Department of Education’s Office of Career, Technical, and Adult Education (OCTAE) used a statistical model to generate predicted levels of performance for each indicator for program years (PYs) 2022-23 and 2023-24. These performance predictions were one of four factors used to inform the process by which the negotiated levels of performance were established by state offices of adult education and OCTAE. Once actual PY data are available for those years, the negotiated levels of performance will be adjusted based on actual economic conditions and characteristics of participants within the state. OCTAE’s partners in developing the statistical adjustment model are the Rehabilitation Services Administration (RSA) in the U.S. Department of Education and the Employment and Training Administration (ETA) in the U.S. Department of Labor.
The PY 2022-23 and PY 2023-24 Statistical Modeling Tool includes information on the model that was used in the spring of 2022, predicted performance indicator values, and past levels of performance. The tool focuses on the modeling process for the state indicator values used in the PY 2022-23 and PY 2023-24 negotiations process and provides information on how those predicted values were calculated. It includes the relevant data for each state. To look at a particular state in the tool, please download the tool and select the state name from the dropdown menu on the MSG Model sheet. All other indicator sheets will automatically populate with that state’s values.
OCTAE Program Memorandum 22-1 describes the use of the statistical adjustment model for PY 2020-21 and PY 2021-22.
An overview on the use of the statistical adjustment model for negotiations and assessing performance can be found in this webinar: https://nrsweb.org/training-ta/statistical-adjustment-model. This webinar was released in 2020 when the statistical adjustment model was first used.